A 32-year-old man from Mumbai, diagnosed with HIV-1 infection 8 years ago, has been on stable ART for 6 years with undetectable viral load (CD4 count 450/μL). His partner, who is HIV-negative, wishes to conceive. Which epidemiological principle best distinguishes the risk of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) in this scenario from the risk in an untreated pregnant woman with CD4 <200/μL?

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